THE FUTURE IS HERE, AND IT DOES NOT LOOK PROMISING FOR PIGEON RACING!
Courtesy of SA Pigeon Racing, by Dr J.P. Nel

Article Published 20 May 2008

We can’t say we did not have ample warning that things can go wrong in the pigeon sport. In fact, I wrote two articles on this in the past (“PIGEON RACING – IS IT TIME FOR A DRASTIC MINDSHIFT” and “IS DIE DUIWESPORT OP SY LAASTE BENE?”) I’m afraid the future has now caught up with us – if we don’t act now it will most certainly be too late, because global warming, the so-called “mortgage meltdown” in the USA (which clearly demonstrates the global interrelatedness between financial institutions), the rapid decline in the pigeon sport in especially Belgium, the skyrocketing fuel prices, daily blackouts, inflation touching the 10% mark and the rapid decline in the value of the Rand against especially the Euro are making it really hard for the average pigeon fancier to stay in the sport. And the more fanciers leave the sport, the more difficult will it become for those who are still hanging on, which can easily lead to a total collapse of the pigeon sport as we know it, unless we do something now. It is already too late to do contingency planning; that we should have done long ago. The beast is here and it is time to fight for our very survival as pigeon fanciers.

Don’t underestimate the importance of the inflation rate for us as individual pigeon fanciers and pigeon fancying organizations alike. The inflation rate is a clear (statistical) summary of what is happening in the economy, and a relatively accurate indicator of what is to come. If the inflation rate is 10%, then you are already paying 10% more than in the past for most things that you buy, including pigeon food, fuel, medicines, etc. Don’t for one moment think you will be able to get by with the same budget as last year if the inflation rate for the year was 10%, i.e. if everything (on average) became 10% more expensive. The following is the inflation rates for South Africa over the past ten years (2008 is for the first three months only). (Central Statistical Services web site, accessed on 30 March 2008.)

Unfortunately we are currently in a situation where irresponsible; even corrupt actions of those in power are exacerbated by the irresponsible lifestyle of the USA society, and they are ruining the quality of our pigeon sport. Crime, power failures, unprofessional government agencies, corrupt businesspeople, a 41% unemployment rate all work together to make an improvement in the inflation rate very unlikely, and we need to recognize the seriousness of the situation if we are to save the pigeon sport from rapid decline if not total collapse.

The second indicator of our purchasing power is the value of the Rand compared to other currencies, especially the US Dollar. In this respect I deliberately limited my analysis to the short term, since the long term is actually irrelevant in the volatile times that we are living in. The challenges that we are now facing are here, and the only future projections that are important are short term ones – what will happen during this current racing season is what counts. Five or more years from now will probably be too late. The following graph shows the trend in the Rand-Dollar exchange rates between April 2007 and March 2008: (http://www.exchange-rates.org/history/ ZAR/USD/G.)



Probably the most important trend in the graph is the drastic decline in the value of the Rand between November 2007 and March 2008. If we were to project this trend forward we will end up with a rather shocking “prediction” of an exchange rate of something like 1 USD = R15.00 by the end of the current racing season, which might translate to a fuel price of something like R12.00 per litter! To make things worse, the USA economy is currently in arguably the worst state since the 1933 depression, and some experts are of the opinion that this is only the beginning! Point is the value of the Rand is declining even more rapidly against the Euro than against the US Dollar! But, seeing that the South African economy is very strongly linked to the US economy, I feel that the Rand-Dollar exchange rates are already sufficiently dramatic to support my argument. But let’s not over-exaggerate; let’s look at the situation as soberly as is possible in the face of so many dragons knocking at our door:

The above graph is the same as the first one on the exchange rate, except that it is in a linear format and I added the months over which the racing season will stretch, so that we can see where we are going and what to expect. Beginning in April 2007 rather than, say, November 2007 provides us with a much less drastic graph, which is probably the more objective way to use statistics. The resulting smoothed graph (in red) shows that we can probably expect the Dollar to still be worth approximately R8.00 by the end of the racing season, which is already a rather unhealthy exchange rate – it will now, for example, cost you more than R8,000.00 to enter a pigeon in the Sun City Million Dollar Race! However, the two black lines that start at the current (March) exchange rate represents the volatility range and shows that it is possible that the Dollar-Rand exchange rates can be anything between R10.00 and R6.75 per Dollar. (Adapted from UBS Wealth Management Research dated 29 February 2008.)

Unfortunately there are no indicators in the environment that supports an improvement in the current situation, so we need to put up the barricades now! What can we do to save the pigeon racing sport? Many of my suggestions, if not all, have been mentioned before, and you can probably think of some more. The difference is, in the past we only speculated about the future, now the future is upon us. Here are some suggestions – I am listing both suggestions for individual fanciers as well as organizations:

1.Don’t toss your pigeons or at least toss them less.
We’ve been speculating about the true value of tossing for ages. I know quite a number of pigeon fanciers who never toss their pigeons and who are performing very well. In fact, two of the best pigeon fanciers in our club hardly ever toss their pigeons. It is not customary for pigeon fanciers in Europe to toss their pigeons, and those who do, toss only short distances. Granted, they race many more races per week than us, but we can compensate for this through my second suggestion, namely keeping less pigeons.

2.Keep less pigeons.
Again, we’ve also been speculating about this for as long as I can remember. Unfortunately it is time to act. Keep only the very best of the best. Most of us know very well which pigeons in our lofts win the races, but even so we keep the pets in the hope that, one day, their offspring might achieve something. How often have I not heard pigeon fanciers say: “I will make this so-and-so very expensive imported pigeon work?” Do not make average pigeons work – get rid of them and keep the true champions.

3.Race over shorter distances.
I also suggested this in a previous article, and still pigeon fanciers persist in racing over distances of 800km and more. What exactly are we trying to prove? An overnight race, for which the pigeons must usually be basketed on the Thursday evening, is not only unacceptable treatment of animals, but also much more expensive than races where the pigeons can reach the home loft on the same day. I don’t think races over more than 700km is necessary at all, and such shorter races hold many other advantages like being able to spend more time with the family, going to church, etc.

4.Co-operate and be honest.
Do not sell your less than top quality pigeons to other pigeons fanciers. We are all in the same boat, and by creating new problems for somebody else you will only make the situation for us all, including for yourself, worse. If a pigeon does not meet your standards, they are also not good enough for others – cull them.

5.Study genetics.
Genetics can be really complicated, and I don’t think any pigeon fancier in South Africa knows enough about genetics to breed top performers consistently based on genetics. But we can at least take note of the basics, since this will enable us to select the pigeons that we keep and sell better. The Union winner in your loft is not necessarily the one you should keep to breed from. It is quite possible that his brother, who did not win a single race, is the one with the genetic makeup to breed champions. Keep proper records of your pigeons, keep statistics and focus on consistency rather than the odd good performance. Also remember that champions don’t always breed champions.

6.Focus on economy of scale.
This suggestion is directed at especially clubs and unions/federations. Economy of scale means that we can reduce the costs for pigeon fanciers by co-operating in terms of numbers of pigeon fanciers working together. The more members a club, union or federation has, the less expensive will pigeon racing be for each individual fancier. We can no longer afford to have, say three clubs, each with five to eight members in one town, just because of individual differences. The luxury of selfish interests, power games, and jealousy now belongs to the past, and those who persist with this will get what they deserve.

7.Focus on efficiency.
Efficiency means doing things with the least waste. Individual pigeon fanciers should seriously look at ways that they can save. We can no longer afford tossing our pigeons all on our own, just because we don’t want other club members to know how we train our pigeons or because we don’t get along with Tom, Dick or Harry. Unions and Federations should plan their boundaries according to the direction in which they fly rather than some predetermined perimeter around the club house, so that pigeon trucks can pick pigeons up in as straight a line as possible, thereby not using fuel unnecessarily. Besides, this will achieve a better measure of “levelling the playing field”, since the effect of wind direction and geographical features is much greater than the effect of over flight.

8.Using medication wisely.
We all know that ritualistic preventive medication without having the pigeons tested first often does more damage than good. We also know that good performances are not to be found in bottles, but rather in good quality pigeons and committed pigeon fanciers. Even so, we still purchase exorbitantly expensive medicine and force it down the pigeons’ throats, even though we have no evidence that it makes a difference. In this respect veterinarians and others selling pigeon medicine have a responsibility towards the pigeon fraternity. Traders in pigeon medication even distribute treatment regimes according to which you should give your pigeons some kind of medication virtually every day of the year! One should not sell medication without knowing if it works. Even more importantly, one should not sell medication that you won’t give your own pigeons. Those who sell pigeon medication at unnecessarily high prices will have only themselves to blame if the pigeon sport collapses because of their greed.

9.Be realistic about electronic clocks.
Why purchase an electronic clock that can register 1,000 pigeons and thirty races at a time if your club offers only two races on a Saturday and you have only 100 racers in your loft? I would not suggest that we return to the old “hand clocks”, since technology offers numerous advantages, but I do suggest that we purchase wisely. Furthermore, I am of the opinion that electronic clocks and their fittings can probably be sold at much lower prices than what we are currently being confronted with. I had a discussion on this with two electronic engineers some three years ago, and told them that we pay approximately R20.00 for an electronic ring. After explaining to them exactly what the ring does and how it works, they told me that they would be able to develop and sell a ring with many features that the current rings do not have, for example they could integrate the number ring with the electronic ring, so that you could ring the chicks with the electronic ring, thereby eliminating the problem of electronic ring theft. The ring would be approximately the same size as the current number ring and need not cost more than R5.00 each, if they could also get into the European market. I subsequently forward an email to a friend in Europe, asking him if he would be willing to act as an agent for the manufacturers of the ring. I did not know that my friend actually works for a large manufacturer of the current electronic rings. His response was that they would launch a price war against the South African company, should the ring be developed in South Africa. Unfortunately the engineers to whom I spoke backed off, since they were not willing to become involved in such a conflict. Like those who sell pigeon medication, those who trade in electronic clocks will also have only themselves to blame if the pigeon sport collapses or does not grow sufficiently to make their ventures viable.

I am supposed to end this article on a positive note – that’s how it is done. But I am afraid not this time. The writing is on the wall, and we will have only ourselves to blame if we persist in our complacent attitude towards our sport from which we gain so much joy. Let’s co-operate, let’s all think of and implement ways in which we can make the pigeon sport more affordable. Once we can achieve this, we can also recruit new fanciers to the sport with a clear conscience, so that we will all be able to enjoy the sport for many more decades to come.

Dr J.P. Nel. contact@mentornet.co.za.